Follow the Rewards to See the Real Game

People are not random.

They don’t just act based on emotions, values, or promises.

Most of the time, they act based on what’s rewarded — and what’s punished.

If you can see the rewards behind the moves,
you stop being surprised by people's actions.

You start seeing the real game being played.

Most people look at behavior and ask:
"Why would they do that?"

Strategic thinkers look deeper:
"What incentives are pushing them?"

Because behavior often isn't about morality, loyalty, or common sense.

It’s about what the system quietly teaches people to optimize for.

Follow the incentives — and the behavior stops looking mysterious.

It starts looking inevitable.

Explain and Expand

Every system — a school, a company, a market, a family — has hidden reward structures.

People are pulled by:

• Money
• Status
• Recognition
• Security
• Fear of loss
• Fear of blame

And if the incentives reward speed over accuracy?
People will move fast — even if mistakes rise.

If the incentives reward short-term wins over long-term value?
People will chase quick results — even if it damages the future.

It’s not about "good" or "bad" people.

It’s about systems quietly training behavior through incentives.

Imagine a field full of small hills and dips.

Now pour water over it.

The water doesn’t randomly choose a path.
It flows wherever gravity pulls it easiest — downhill.

Incentives are the "gravity" of human systems.

They pull behavior into predictable patterns.

If you see the terrain of incentives,
you can predict where the "water" (people) will flow.

In complex environments, incentives matter more than intentions.

If you want to:

• Predict what people will really do
• Design better systems
• Protect yourself from manipulation
• Create smarter, longer-lasting outcomes

...you need to see how the reward rivers are flowing.

Because the smartest players don't just work harder.

They work with the system — or redesign it.

• Assuming others act based only on values or friendship
• Missing how "good people" can act differently under different reward systems
• Believing stated goals ("we care about quality") without checking real incentives ("we bonus for speed")

Suppose you see a colleague suddenly take credit for a project you worked on together.

Instead of just feeling betrayed, run the incentive map:

• Behavior: Claim credit
• Reward: Manager sees them as high-performing, closer to promotion
• Loop: More public positioning, more visibility

Now you know:

• It’s not personal.
• It's an incentive-driven move.

And you can plan smarter:

• Document your contributions
• Build direct credibility with decision-makers
• Avoid playing invisible games others are optimizing hard for

Make Personal

Before reacting to surprising behavior, ask:

• "What incentives were they responding to?"
• "What was the hidden reward for that action?"
• "If I were in their shoes — would I have done the same?"

This removes judgment — and sharpens your strategy.

When you stop being surprised by people,
you start moving smarter.

And the secret to not being surprised?

Follow the rewards.

Because in the real world, it's not just hopes or dreams driving the game.

It’s incentives — quietly but powerfully — shaping the real map you need to see.

🔑 Key Insight
Behavior flows along incentives. Understand the rewards, and you’ll understand the moves.

Tool
Incentive Mapping Mini-Framework:

• Spot the behavior
• Identify the reward
• Map the loop
• Adjust your strategy

📍 When to Use
Anytime you're confused by people’s behavior, navigating a system, or making strategic career or relationship moves.